If current trends continue, pathogens are expected to cause four times the number of spillover events, 12 times the number of deaths by 2050
By Elana Gotkine HealthDay Reporter
FRIDAY, Nov. 3, 2023 (HealthDay News) — The number of zoonotic spillover events and reported deaths increased by 4.98 and 8.7 percent, respectively, annually, according to a study published online Nov. 2 in BMJ Global Health.
Amanda Jean Meadows, Ph.D., from Ginkgo Bioworks in Emeryville, California, and colleagues used an extensive epidemiological database to analyze a specific subset of high-consequence zoonotic spillover events to assess the annual frequency and severity of outbreaks. The analysis included a subset of pathogens (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 1, filoviruses, Machupo virus, and Nipah virus) and excluded the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic.
From 1963 to 2019, there were 75 spillover events in 24 countries, causing 17,232 deaths. The researchers observed a 4.98 and 8.7 percent annual increase in the number of spillover events and reported deaths, respectively, estimated using fitted negative binomial models.
“If the trend we observe in this study continues, we would expect to see these pathogens cause four times the number of spillover events and 12 times the number of deaths in 2050, compared with 2020,” the authors write.
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