With two-month lag period, social distancing index linked to higher neonatal and early neonatal mortality rates
By Elana Gotkine HealthDay Reporter
TUESDAY, July 23, 2024 (HealthDay News) — COVID-19 pandemic social distancing measures are associated with increased rates of neonatal and early neonatal mortality with a lag period, according to a study published online July 18 in JAMA Network Open.
Vivek V. Shukla, M.D., from the University of Alabama at Birmingham, and colleagues examined whether social distancing during the pandemic was associated with a higher neonatal mortality rate in a cohort study using maternal-linked birth and infant death records from the National Center for Health Statistics. The correlation between mortality rates and the social distancing index (SDI) was examined using machine learning-based autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models.
Data were included for 18,011,173 births: 15,136,596 from the reference period (January 2016 through February 2020) and 2,874,577 from the pandemic period (March through December 2020). The researchers found that the mortality rates during the pandemic period did not differ significantly from expected rates through ARIMA-adjusted analyses accounting for the declining mortality trend in the reference period. No significant correlations were seen for SDI with neonatal mortality, early neonatal mortality, or infant mortality. However, in lag analyses, SDI was associated with higher neonatal and early neonatal mortality rates with a two-month lag period; no association was seen with infant mortality rate. Increases in 22- to 27-weeks’ and 28- to 32-weeks’ preterm delivery were seen in association with SDI with a one-month lag period.
“These findings underscore the importance of considering the broader implications of pandemic-related population behavior changes and the need for in-depth concurrent analyses of their impact among at-risk populations,” the authors write.
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