Depending on extent of mitigation measures adapted, up to 2.3 million climate change-related deaths can occur this century
By Lori Solomon HealthDay Reporter
THURSDAY, Jan. 30, 2025 (HealthDay News) — Heat-related deaths are expected to climb throughout Europe this century due to climate change, according to a study published online Jan. 27 in Nature Medicine.
Pierre Masselot, Ph.D., from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and colleagues estimated how climate change could affect future heat-related and cold-related mortality in 854 European urban areas, under several different scenarios.
The researchers found that with no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all considered scenarios in Europe. A net death burden due to climate change increased by 49.9 percent (2,345,410 climate change-related deaths) between 2015 and 2099 under the lowest mitigation and adaptation scenario (SSP3-7.0). Even under high adaptation scenarios, this net effect would remain positive, with risk attenuated by 50 percent, but still insufficient to reverse the trend under SSP3-7.0. Regional differences show a slight net decrease of death rates in Northern European countries but high vulnerability within the Mediterranean region and Eastern Europe areas.
“Our results stress the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat,” Masselot said in a statement. “This is especially critical in the Mediterranean area where, if nothing is done, consequences could be dire. But, by following a more sustainable pathway, we could avoid millions of deaths before the end of the century.”
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