Thirty-seven factors have good accuracy for predicting five- and 10-year mortality in older veterans
THURSDAY, June 25, 2020 (HealthDay News) — Factors readily available in administrative data can predict five- and 10-year mortality in older adults with diabetes, according to a study published online June 19 in Diabetes Care.
Kevin N. Griffith, from the VA Boston Healthcare System, and colleagues used data from 275,190 veterans with diabetes (≥65 years) to identify potential predictors of limited life expectancy (patient demographics, comorbidities, procedure codes, laboratory values and anthropomorphic measurements, medication history, and previous health service utilization).
The researchers identified 37 predictors of mortality, including four demographic variables; prescriptions for insulin, sulfonylureas, or blood pressure medications; six biomarkers; previous outpatient and inpatient utilization; and 22 comorbidities and procedures. These prognostic indices demonstrated good discrimination, with C-statistics of 0.74 for five-year mortality and 0.76 for 10-year mortality. The indices also showed excellent agreement between observed outcome and predictions, with calibration slopes of 1.01 for both five- and 10-year mortality.
“Such a tool may enable clinicians and patients to develop individualized treatment goals that balance risks and benefits of treatment intensification,” the authors write.
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