Early adult excess mortality higher than expected in 2019
By Elana Gotkine HealthDay Reporter
TUESDAY, Feb. 11, 2025 (HealthDay News) — From 2011 to 2023, there was an increase in early adult mortality in the United States, with further acceleration seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a research letter published online Jan. 31 in JAMA Network Open.
Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, Ph.D., from the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, and colleagues calculated monthly mortality rates using cause-specific death counts for adults aged 25 to 44 years between 1999 and 2023.
The study analyzed 3,392,364 deaths among the full U.S. population aged 25 to 44 years from 1999 to 2023. Compared with extrapolations of pre-2011 trends, mortality increases across most causes of death produced substantial excess deaths. In 2019, early adult excess mortality was 34.6 percent higher than expected, with further acceleration during the COVID-19 pandemic. All-cause excess mortality was nearly three times higher in 2021 than 2019 (116.2 versus 41.7 deaths per 100,000 population). Excess mortality decreased in 2023 to approximately midway between 2019 and 2021 levels (79.1 deaths per 100,000 population). In 2023, early adult mortality was 70.0 percent higher than it would have been had pre-2011 trends continued, with 71,124 excess deaths. In 2023, drug poisoning, residual natural cause category, transport-related deaths, alcohol-related deaths, and homicide accounted for almost three-quarters of early adult excess mortality (31.8, 16.0, 14.1, 8.5, and 8.2 percent, respectively).
“Increases in early adult mortality can signal population risks that may become more pronounced as these cohorts age. These results suggest the possibility of a worsening mortality crisis unless these trends are reversed,” the authors write.
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